The Two Faces of John

When the going gets tough, the tough go negative. Despite earlier refusals to engage in negative campaigning, the McCain camp launched into character attacks and guilt by association tactics on Saturday with Sarah Palin suggesting a closer than apparent relationship between Barack Obama and former Weather Underground member William Ayers. What a difference a few weeks (of negative polling) makes.



As reported on January 5 in the New Hampshire Union Leader:

McCain said he drew two lessons from the Iowa caucuses: that negative ads don't work, and that, 'If you're a person who is trustworthy, you can do well.' He also said he agrees with the "overwhelming media view" of Sen. Barack Obama's victory in the Democratic caucuses: Obama "is seen as a fresh face, and a lot of people, particularly younger ones, seem to be looking for that."

Following the negative attacks against him in the 2000 South Carolina Republican primary, John McCain said "I'm not going to take the low road to the highest office in the land. I want the presidency in the best way, not the worst way."

With rapidly declining poll numbers, political expediency has replaced a respect for history. In kind, Obama will be releasing a web attack at noon ET today. Currently, a page has posted with the headline "Keting Economics: John McCain and the Making of a Financial Crisis." The Obama camp will not be "Swift-Boated."

Commenting recently on McCain going negative, pollster John Zogby said "Voters want authenticity this year, and this is the opposite of authenticity. It's politics as usual, and he runs a very serious risk of damaging the way he's always been defined, as being above that sort of politics."

From the same article:

The unsavory reality is that negative ads tend to work. But McCain's bellicose stance toward Obama could backfire because it coincides with his campaign's decision to "double down" on his past reputation as a reformer and a "maverick," said Rodolfo Espino, an assistant political-science professor at Arizona State University. This month's Republican National Convention in St. Paul, Minn., showcased McCain's history of bipartisan outreach and his commitment to changing Washington.

"I'm not condoning McCain's advertising and his handlers' behavior, but if you're running a campaign and you're running to win, what are you going to do?" Espino said. "All research points to the effectiveness of negative advertising."

As this recent SNL skit suggests, the campaign and its message will go wherever it needs to go to chase victory.



Interestingly, the concept of this spot originated with Al Franken, former SNL writer/cast member and current Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate in Minnesota. His opponent, incumbent Norm Coleman, sharply attacked Franken following the spot genesis story. Franken had been trailing by double digits and Coleman viewed this as an opportunity to widen his lead, by portraying Franken as irresponsible and dangerous. It backfired, as Franken has now taken the lead.

As the article points out: "The new poll suggests that one reason for Franken’s gain is voters’ reaction to the abrasive advertising in the campaign. The survey shows that 56 percent of poll respondents consider ads criticizing Franken to be “mostly unfair personal attacks.” Only 42 percent said the same about ads criticizing Coleman."

While negative advertising may sometimes be effective, unfounded personal attacks can backfire. With both McCain and Obama lowering the acceptability threshold, the line in the sand, if it were ever there at all, is quickly becoming a mirage.